London, UK, 22 June 2021

Sequana Medical (SEQUA): Initiation - alfapump and DSR for fluid overload disorders

Sequana's proprietary alfapump and Direct Sodium Removal (DSR) platforms are being advanced as long-term treatments for diuretic-resistant fluid overload related to liver disease, malignant ascites and heart failure (HF). The alfapump is commercialised in parts of Europe for liver disease and is undergoing a pivotal North American registration study (POSEIDON), with primary endpoint data expected in Q222. This device removes localised excess fluid build-up in the peritoneal cavity, and aims to provide significant improvements in quality-of-life and patient independence. DSR technology adds a complementary method for removing excess fluid that is spread all over the body and the combined approach, alfapump DSR, is being advanced as a therapy for HF patients affected by congestion (fluid overload). Sequana is funded through the POSEIDON data inflection point and we derive an rNPV valuation of €249m.

Our Sequana valuation applies a risk-adjusted net present value (nNPV) model primarily valuing the North American prospects for alfapump and the EU and US prospects for alfapump DSR. We obtain an rNPV of €248.7m. After including €22.2m in Q121e net cash, we obtain an equity valuation of €271m or €14.58 per share (€13.33 fully diluted). We model that Sequana's cash should last into Q222 and that it will need to raise €85m between 2022 and 2026 before reaching profitability.  

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